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Fixed vs Variable Rate: How to Choose in 2026

With interest rates shifting, the fixed vs variable decision matters more than ever. Here's a clear framework to help you choose.

⏱ 7 min read·📅 March 2026

The rate decision that keeps borrowers up at night

Should I fix my rate? It's one of the most common questions we get - and one of the hardest to answer definitively, because it depends on your personal circumstances, risk tolerance, and views on where rates are heading.

In 2026, with the RBA having cut rates multiple times from the 2023 peak, the decision is particularly nuanced. Variable rates have fallen, but fixed rates are priced based on where lenders expect rates to go - which means they're not always the bargain they appear.

Here's a clear framework to help you decide.

Variable rate: what you're getting

A variable rate moves with the market. When the RBA cuts the cash rate, variable rates typically fall. When the RBA raises rates, variable rates rise. Your repayments change accordingly.

Advantages of variable rates:

  • Full flexibility - make unlimited extra repayments without penalty
  • Access to offset accounts, which can significantly reduce your interest
  • Benefit immediately when rates fall
  • No break costs if you refinance or sell
  • Usually the lowest rate available at any given time (in a falling rate environment)

Disadvantages of variable rates:

  • Repayments can increase if rates rise - harder to budget
  • Uncertainty can cause anxiety for some borrowers

Fixed rate: what you're getting

A fixed rate is locked in for a set period - typically 1, 2, 3, or 5 years. Your repayments don't change during the fixed term, regardless of what the RBA does.

Advantages of fixed rates:

  • Certainty - you know exactly what your repayments will be
  • Protection if rates rise during your fixed term
  • Easier to budget, especially for first home buyers

Disadvantages of fixed rates:

  • Break costs can be significant if you refinance, sell, or make large extra repayments during the fixed term
  • Usually no offset account (or limited offset)
  • Extra repayments are typically capped (often $10,000/year)
  • If rates fall, you're stuck on the higher fixed rate
  • Fixed rates are priced based on future rate expectations - they're not always cheaper than variable

The rate environment in 2026

After a series of RBA rate cuts in 2024–2025, variable rates have fallen from their 2023 peak. As of early 2026, competitive variable rates for owner-occupiers are available below 6.00% p.a. from multiple lenders.

Fixed rates are currently priced to reflect market expectations of where rates will be over the fixed term. In a falling rate environment, fixed rates are often higher than variable rates - because lenders are pricing in the expectation that variable rates will continue to fall.

Our current view: In the current environment, variable rates offer better value for most borrowers. The flexibility of variable - particularly access to offset accounts - adds significant value that fixed rates can't match. That said, a split loan (part fixed, part variable) can be a sensible compromise for borrowers who want some certainty.

Note: This is general commentary, not personal financial advice. Your situation may differ. Speak with us to get a recommendation specific to your circumstances.

The split loan: the best of both worlds?

A split loan divides your mortgage into two portions: one on a fixed rate and one on a variable rate. For example, you might fix 60% of your loan and keep 40% variable.

This gives you:

  • Certainty on the fixed portion - you know what those repayments will be
  • Flexibility on the variable portion - you can make extra repayments and use an offset account
  • Partial protection if rates rise
  • Partial benefit if rates fall

A split loan is a popular choice for borrowers who want some certainty without giving up all flexibility. We'll help you determine the right split ratio based on your goals and cash flow.

A simple decision framework

Choose variable if...
  • You value flexibility and may want to make large extra repayments
  • You want to use an offset account to reduce interest
  • You're comfortable with some payment uncertainty
  • You think rates will stay flat or fall further
  • You may sell or refinance within the next 2–3 years
Choose fixed if...
  • You need certainty for budgeting (e.g. tight cash flow, single income household)
  • You're worried about rate rises and want protection
  • You don't plan to make large extra repayments
  • You won't need to sell or refinance during the fixed term
  • The fixed rate is genuinely lower than the variable rate
Consider a split if...
  • You want some certainty but also some flexibility
  • You're unsure about the rate direction
  • You want to hedge your bets without committing fully to either

Ready to take action?

Book a free strategy call with our team. We'll assess your situation and map out your best options - no obligation.